TC Alfred March 2025 20 February 2025 - 9 March 2025 reached Category 4 severe tropical cyclone
28 March 2025
-(002).jpg?updated=1743133795571)
This month was an eventful weather event in Queensland, as Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea on 20 February and made a very slow journey southwards, reaching Category 4, a severe tropical cyclone. It also travelled half way across the Tasman Sea towards Norfolk Island before turning back to the Brisbane area. The cyclone pathway made it difficult to predict the impact, as it approached the coast the effected areas were from Sunshine Coast to Gold Coast plus NSW North Coast and after making landfall, even Hervey Bay was hit with flash flooding.
As TC Alfred approached the coast, large swells and waves caused coastal damage, and beaches were closed for public safety. Bribie Island was impacted with the sea breaking through the outer sand island. There were many images shared on the internet, including the Sunshine Coast with massive waves and the Gold Coast with coastal erosion and sand dunes washed away.
With heavy rain and gale force winds forecast, schools were closed, workplaces closures, Medical and Hospitals were emergencies only and surgeries were postponed. Rubbish and recycling collection etc were stopped until after the cyclone. Communities prepared their homes and businesses. Flood zone areas filled sand bags, and communities were advised to leave before it is too late. Supermarkets food and supplies were in demand and torches and batteries sold out quickly.
.jpg?updated=1743133795571)
Sporting events and music entertainment events were cancelled, including a Green Day Music Concert scheduled for 5 March at the Gold Coast's Cbus Super Stadium.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a 'period of emergency' had been enacted that the Australian Defence Force had been activated with immediate effect. Albanese also confirmed that 125,000 sandbags are to be delivered to the Queensland government, with an additional 80,000 being delivered by the Australian Defence Force alone. Additional deployment of heavy-lift helicopters from the fleet was also announced. The cyclone was also a factor in deciding the date of the federal election, which was to be held by May.
The cyclone was still moving extremely slow, the gale force winds gust hit the Gold Coast and Brisbane areas along with heavy rain. This caused disruptions to phone communications, power outages and flooding closing roads.
TC Alfred made landfall on Friday 7 March & Saturday 8 March 2025.
.jpg?updated=1743133795571)
At 23:30 AEST (13:30 UTC) on 7 March, Alfred made landfall on Moreton Island, with winds of 75 km/h (45 mph).
At 06:45 AEST on 8 March, Alfred was downgraded to a tropical low before crossing the mainland.
Sadly, there was a loss of life, with 1+ death recorded, I also read that there were 4+ missing and 39+ injuries.
Shipping was disrupted, this also effected the Norfolk Island supply vessel, the MV Norfolk was delayed due to the ocean swells and for safety, the cargo vessel sailed south towards Melbourne and sheltered at Tasmania, away from TC Alfred.
A Lithuanian solo-rower, Aurimas Mockus, rowing from San Diego to Brisbane was caught in the cyclone prompting a successful search and rescue by the Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Choules.
Flights were cancelled, I checked the flight app, and it was strange to see no planes in the Brisbane area. On the Saturday night the airlines attempted to return aircrafts, but with cross wind gusts up to 90 km, the planes were unable to land. The flights did restart on Sunday to the relief of travellers. The Norfolk Island - Brisbane flights were cancelled on Thursday and Friday and returned to Norfolk Island on Sunday. The Norfolk Island Toll Freight flights were also cancelled on Friday.
As the cyclone moved inland and the weather improved, TC Alfred dissipated on 9 March. Tradesman were busy repairing the power network, the cell phone systems and damaged towers. Trees were inspected, those which had damaged property and blocking roadways were removed. I read that there were many Norfolk pine trees removed on the Gold Coast.
As community clean up after TC Alfred, damage claims are now being completed, tradesman will be attending to repairs. Government assistance is being offered to some communities effected by the cyclone.
Some of my family had over 300mm of rain in one day, others were left with no power for a day and another of my family for a week with no power.
Here on Norfolk Island, we did hope to share some of the rain, and we did get a few rain drops helping our rain tanks and gardens.
We hope communities effected by TC Alfred are now returning to normal routines, supermarkets will be refilling the shelfs and others will be having damaged homes and business repaired. Tropical Cyclone Alfred will be a storm be remembered in years to come.
Attached are a few images from the news and weather publications on Social Media and the internet.
Betty Matthews
28 March 2025
The following is a summary of details of TC Alfred
An Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Alfred
An Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Tropical Cyclone Alfred was far from a textbook system—its slow movement, erratic track, and unexpected strengthening offshore led to widespread impacts.
Early concerns of a mid-to-high Category 2 landfall fortunately did not eventuate. Instead, Alfred’s outer eyewall grazed the Gold Coast, producing 107 km/h wind gusts at the Gold Coast Seaway and 100 km/h at Coolangatta. Byron Bay recorded 120 km/h, though this is an exposed coastal location.
However, with the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred are still being assessed, it'll likely be some time until a qualitative assessment can be made. As of March 14, 2025, the ICA (Insurance Council of Australia) has more than 53,000 claims on record. This value will climb as more claims come in.
Between 1974 and 2011, Southeast Queensland saw relatively few significant flood events or tropical cyclones. But since 2011, the region has experienced two major flood events, two ex-tropical cyclones, and now Tropical Cyclone Alfred—raising the question: are we entering another period of heightened cyclone and flood activity?
Lessons Learnt & Conclusion
Undoubtedly, there will be many lessons learned across industries from Tropical Cyclone Alfred. This was the first time in Australia’s history that such a large population was directly in the path of a tropical cyclone, creating an unprecedented level of concern over potential outcomes. Southeast Queensland was fortunate that Alfred weakened on approach but had earlier forecasts of a mid to high-range Category 2 impact been realised, the situation could have been far worse.
At Weatherwatch, meteorology and science are at the core of our DNA. Examining this event from a meteorological perspective, several key takeaways emerged:
Model guidance often underestimates the duration of convergence zone rainfall. Events like this tend to start later and persist longer than expected, a pattern seen in previous systems, this appears to be a repeated pattern (ie Jasper, 2011 & 2022 flood events).
AI models struggled with Alfred. At times when every single traditional (NWP) model had Alfred crossing the coastline, AI models did not have this. One of the limitations of AI models is that they can only forecast what has happened before. While this type of learning is undoubtedly useful, it illustrates the critical importance of traditional modelling - as they can forecast events that have not happened before. Even a few days out, some AI models were forecasting a "light shower" in Brisbane on Sunday when suburbs had more than 300mm in a few hours.
Terrain interaction plays a critical role in cyclone weakening. Alfred weakened as it approached the islands and hinterland, but a faster-moving system may retain more strength before landfall. While the sample size in small, this suggests a bigger concern may be from a faster moving system allowing for less time to weaken.
The southern Queensland coastline is capable of sustaining & potentially intensifying tropical cyclones. Under the right conditions, warm ocean temperatures may not only support tropical cyclones but allow intensification—a possibility that may become more likely due to long-term Coral Sea warming trends.
Weather understanding is just as important as the forecast. At Weatherwatch, we aim to provide more than just predictions—we help people and businesses understand the weather. The overwhelming response to our updates reinforced how critical clear, contextual explanations are in reducing uncertainty and helping communities make informed decisions.
QLD - TC Alfred February - March 2025