Life on the West Island - White House wins and woes

The last fortnight on the West Island has been a very sad time for SAD (Sky After Dark) with many of their loony prognostications about Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s alleged “failures” in his relationship with Donald Trump being proven to be spectacularly wrong. Following near-universal praise for the Prime Minister’s triumphant visit to Washington, SAD has been reduced to trying to beat up ridiculous stories about T-shirts and “failed” ambassadors to try to cover their abject refusal to move away from knee-jerk reactions and from promoting far-right conspiracy theories.

Regrettably, the leader of the Liberal Party has followed their lead, with a number of ill-conceived jibes, only to be forced into humiliating backdowns through pressure from her alarmed colleagues in light of wide reporting of the Prime Minister’s Washington successes. Now, Albanese has been feted by Trump at a formal dinner in South Korea, being seated next to the President, who called him a great leader and told the world we had a great meeting a week ago – you’ve done a fantastic job, drawing headlines such as Trump singles out Albanese for praise at dinner, leaving SAD and the opposition speechless.

While the major media and his colleagues stand in awe of Albanese’s achievements at the White House, including the avoidance of any of the public humiliation which its occupant has heaped on other world leaders, some more considered reactions have come from international relations commentators about the costs to the West Island of agreements reached on mining rare earths and the controversial AUKUS arrangements.

Prominent among such commentators has been Hugh White, the influential academic and former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Defence. Setting the background, White reflected:

How will history judge the line of leaders from countries great and small who turn up week after week at the White House to perch, meek and anxious, beside Donald Trump as the cameras roll? Not well, we can be sure, as the consequences of the United States president’s misrule become increasingly clear and he is recognised as one of the most malign figures ever to win elected office or lead a great country. People will wonder why so many serious and sensible people came to Washington to be filmed shyly praising their petulant host and then sitting, quietly acquiescent, as his manic monologues unspooled.

This week it was our own prime minister’s turn in the awkward limelight. The footage of his 35-minute ordeal is there to watch on the White House website. It is painful viewing. Trump of course did almost all the talking, spouting absurdities that would be startling if his style were not so wearingly familiar. He claimed that China, rather than US consumers, pays the billions of dollars Washington collects in tariffs on Chinese imports. He boasted of bringing peace to eight wars in eight months. He said American shipyards are building all the submarines the US needs and that the rare earths deal he had just signed would deliver so much in just a year “that you won’t know what to do with them”.

Through it all, Anthony Albanese sat smiling. When invited, he spoke of his “fantastic” friendship with Trump and how honoured he felt to be his guest. This, of the man who last month told the United Nations climate change is a “con job”. Albanese told Trump, without apparent irony, that the US–Australia alliance was forged on the world’s battlefields in defence of “freedom and democracy”. This, to a man who urged a mob to overturn his 2020 election defeat and sends soldiers to patrol cities governed by his political opponents.

White went on to examine much of Trump’s stated agenda, before concluding that in fact he has no foreign policy at all, only a set of rhetorical statements and wildly exaggerated claims not backed by any policy development whatsoever:

The US today is effectively without a national leader or a functioning government. All we can expect from Washington these days are meaningless gestures designed to massage Trump’s ego and excite the MAGA crowds.

It must be clear to Western leaders that if solutions are to be found to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and other major problems – including, of course, climate change and the next pandemic – they will be found despite Trump, not through his leadership.

White goes on to examine the surrender of West Island sovereignty and potential environmental damage of the rare earths deal, which he believes could be easily sabotaged if China flooded the world market with its huge stock of such materials at greatly reduced prices.

But his biggest criticism is of the AUKUS arrangements, which he believes will never deliver any nuclear submarines to the West Island. In any case, he says there is no strategic need for the subs, which would be hopelessly inadequate to confront any potential adversary and in the unlikely event of any being provided, would already be obsolete. He proposes scrapping the exorbitantly expensive AUKUS deal altogether and stopping billion-dollar advances to the USA. His final conclusions:

Like the Europeans, we face our new strategic challenges alone. This is no cause for celebration: the United States has been a good ally to Australia and its strategic leadership has been a great boon to Asia. That US is gone and paying court to Donald Trump will not bring it back. If Albanese understands that, he might think carefully before returning to the White House. The best way to manage Trump is to stay away and to focus our efforts instead on the countries and leaders who really do have the power, and the will, to shape our future.

If White is correct, while in the short-term Albanese is basking in plaudits for his perceived wins in Washington, the long-term woes lie ahead as the real consequences play out.