Life on the West Island - Sub-standard

West Island media is awash with wall-to-wall positive stories about the allegedly wonderful leap forward in the nation’s forward defence with the announcements about purchases of up to seven nuclear-powered submarines from USA and UK. The complicated AUKUS deal proposes that the West Island will buy at least three second-hand Virginia class nuclear subs from the United States within a decade to tide us over until the British design and deliver several special new subs to meet our needs over the following 20 years.

The Prime Minister’s announcement of this awkward arrangement concentrated on the apparently large number of new West Island jobs to be created by building significant parts of the subs here and their ongoing repair and maintenance in two or three states.

Subsequent reservations expressed by experts and community leaders have included:

Why do we actually need nuclear submarines and what role will they play?

• Is this plan designed to deter China, and if so, does the West Island actually face any realistic threat from China?

Can we base our future defence on submarines which have yet to be designed?

Can we afford the huge $368 billion cost of the AUKUS plan?

How and where will we dispose of the high-level nuclear waste created by the new submarines?

Former Prime Minister Paul Keating raised all of these issues when he launched a savage attack on the entire submarine plan at the National Press Club. Keating’s sharp wit and destructive language brought shrill howls of protest from the mainstream media and the many journalists who have been stoking fears about Chinese “aggression.” But this reaction camouflaged the more sober and telling criticisms from respected foreign policy and defence experts.

Highly regarded analyst Professor Hugh White of Australian National University questioned the very basis of the plan, saying that the AUKUS submarines will never happen:

You might call it the First Law of Engineering: the more moving parts there are in any system, the more likely it is to fail. It is a sobering thought as we evaluate the AUKUS announcement. We have learned that Australia is going to try to buy and operate not one but two classes of nuclear-powered submarines over the next two decades – first the Virginia class in the 2030s, and then the Anglo–Australian AUKUS class in the 2040s. That means there are twice as many moving parts in this system than we expected, which doubles the chance that the whole thing will fall over.

Melbourne University Professor Marilyn Lake blamed China hawks for setting a climate in which China was demonised and the West Island was locking in to a potential war fostered by the United States:

Although it is in America’s interests that we are urged to prepare for war against China within three years, the graphic image that accompanied the ‘Red Alert’ alert series in the Age and Sydney Morning Herald was designed to speak directly to Australia’s own deep and distinctive historic fears and sense of geographic isolation. The sensationalist propaganda-style image printed on the front page of our newspapers in which Chinese jet fighters depart Red Communist China heading straight for Australia, constitutes a shameless and shameful invocation of past racial fears and antagonisms that will do great harm.

Even if new submarines are called for, Professor White considered the suitability of those chosen in the AUKUS plan:

Why, then, are we buying two different boats? The reason is simply bad timing. It is an awkward fact that neither of our AUKUS partners have an up-to-date nuclear submarine on the shelf for us to buy. This problem apparently was not recognised when the AUKUS plan was first unveiled back in 2021. At the time, the admirals promised that we’d be buying an established design that was already in production with one or other of our partners. But both countries’ current models are old designs, and they are both now developing new designs to replace them. However, these new designs are still decades away from being built and delivered, and we can’t afford to wait because our Collins-class boats are running out of time.

White further pointed out that spending $368 billion would get the West Island more than 50 conventional submarines, which would provide a much greater safety net than the limited number in the AUKUS plan.

Defence analyst Dr Mike Gilligan raised the spectre of the West Island being committed to any American military action in support of Taiwan. He drew attention to Keating’s assertion that a handful of West Island submarines would be powerless against the might of China and would be “like throwing toothpicks at a mountain”:

The requirement for new submarines to be nuclear powered is driven by our politicians wanting to be alongside America in operations against China in its waters. There is no defence policy context for it. This means that submarines would be unavailable for what matters most to Australia – critical operations in the choke points and focal areas around our sea approaches. Keating noted the madness of Australia attacking China in its peripheral waters, precisely where China is most advantaged, where its anti-submarine platforms and sensors are concentrated. Setting aside the slender chance of our submarines surviving, no Australian nuclear submarine could have more than token military impact on China using conventional weaponry.

The marginal benefit to Australia’s own defences is minimal while the cost is off the scale. The proposal is irrational in every dimension. To this day Australians have no idea how badly they have been sold out. Just as offensive is that the Albanese government is ill-informed because of its deliberate disinterest in digging into foreign affairs and defence. Leaving those policy areas to become putty in the hands of Washington.

Many more opponents of the AUKUS plan have raised the extreme cost of the submarines and have pointed out more productive and socially beneficial ways in which the money could be spent. And at this stage, West Islanders still await details of exactly what the new subs are meant to do and how the incredibly dangerous nuclear waste will be stored or disposed of. In short, the whole project is decidedly sub-standard!