Life on the West Island - Naming the problem

Since its election thrashing in May, members of the West Island Liberal Party have been collectively wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth about their lost support among women voters. This is the continuation of a long downward trend in women voting for the party since the era when the Liberals could rely on the “doctors’ wives” and female suburban homemakers to regularly propel them into government. But times have changed, and the party has sunk to its lowest depths ever recorded in the opinion polls, with barely a quarter of voters supporting the Liberal/National coalition.

There might be many explanations as to why women have deserted the conservatives, perhaps most likely in rejection of their mix of policies on climate change, gender equality, environment and working from home, among others. But a prominent journalist has recently written that it is also possible to put a name to the person who is dragging down the conservative vote.

This week, Skye Predavec opened her thoughtful column with:

The Coalition’s problem with women voters is well-known. Female MPs are still outnumbered two-to-one in Liberal and National party rooms, and polling consistently shows women are less likely to vote for either party. There are many factors that can contribute to this, but new research suggests that women in Australia do not see the Coalition as reflecting their values.

Respondents were asked:

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said Australia and the United States “share values” of “democracy and the rule of law”. Do you agree or disagree that Australia “shares values” with the United States under President Trump?

Australian women are very unlikely to agree that Australia shares values with Trump’s America – 52 per cent disagree and just 22 per cent agree. But a plurality of those who intend to vote for the Liberal and National parties agree that Australia shares values with Trump’s America, the opposite result. This research carries a clear message to Australia’s politicians: If you want to appeal to women voters, then you can’t do that by acting like US President Donald Trump.

Perhaps this is stating the obvious. In the last election, Liberal leader Peter Dutton openly lauded the American President and suggested that the West Island should adopt many of his oppressive and anti-democratic initiatives. Too late, he realised that his approach was causing a wave of votes to leak away from the Coalition and modified his stance. But right up to election day, some senior Coalition members continued to praise Trump and to urge their fellow members and candidates to shift even further to the right. The election result was the overwhelming defeat of the Coalition, especially the loss of a swathe of seats in urban areas to Labor and Teal candidates.

Predavec reflected on this and on what the Coalition might do to reverse the trend:

Its dire result was in part because they lost the trust of many female voters under Scott Morrison. Its performance in the May 2025 election showed not only that it hasn’t regained that trust but doing so is key if it wants to win back the seats lost to community independents.

But the Liberal and National parties have welded themselves to the alliance with Trump. They have refused to back an inquiry into the AUKUS submarine deal. Significantly more women (47 per cent) support an inquiry than oppose one (just 15 per cent).

The Coalition needs to get serious about bringing Australian women back into the fold to win back the seats it lost in the past two elections. It could start with reflecting the values of those women and distancing itself from Trump.

A further result of the loss of the 2025 election was that the Liberal Party was left with only a handful of women members in the House of Representatives. It tried to remedy this to an extent by narrowly electing Sussan Ley as its parliamentary leader. While Ley has continually flipflopped on policy matters and has frequently voiced loud knee-jerk reactions to events, she is regarded within the conservative commentariat as a “moderate,” although this might be mainly because her opponents are from the far-right reactionary wing of the Party.

Ley has battled to appear to be balanced, reasonable and in control, but has continually been denigrated in public statements from backbenchers and weakened by resignations from conservative members of the shadow cabinet. The Canberra consensus seems to be that she is remaining in the job for two main reasons.

Firstly, nobody else wants the “worst job in politics” as opposition leader, especially at a time when the Coalition is so far away from regaining the treasury benches. So, her many opponents are biding their time until their stocks improve, and they can move against her. Already, five or six Liberal members are canvassing for support in both public and private, while ostensibly denying their leadership ambitions.

Secondly, there is fear of a backlash – especially from women voters - if the first ever female leader of the Party is dumped within only a few months of being elected to the role.

In the meantime, Canberra insiders describe Ley as “a dead woman walking,” a status probably exaggerated by her timid and indecisive stance on the debate about net zero carbon emissions, an issue which continues to tear the fragile Coalition apart.

Looming over all of this is the spectre of Donald Trump, as he continues to trash American democracy while corruptly lining his pockets with ill-gotten gains at the expense of his country. Some Liberals are still supporting suggestions that their Party should emulate Trump and move much further to the right. If they do, it is likely that the tide of women’s votes away from the Liberals identified by Skye Predavec will turn into a flood. If the West Island two party system is not already dead, such a collapse would certainly lead it to a watery grave.