Life on the West Island - Independents’ Day

The 2022 West Island federal election has probably produced the most democratic result in history, with the makeup of the parliament more closely representing the voters’ wishes than at any other time in living memory.

For probably the first time, no single party has achieved even a third of the popular vote, so that the “two-party” system may have disappeared forever. This continues a slide in the proportion of the vote received by the two major party groupings which began in 2010, when they shared 81% of the vote. This has fallen at each successive election and will finish at just over 68% this year.

With counting almost completed, the first preference votes for the major parties are:

Labor - 33%

Liberal - 24%

National - 12%

This represents a swing away from the Coalition of 5% and a small drop of 0.5% in the Labor vote.

The Greens have received almost 12% (up 1.5%), with the remaining 19% spread across independents and a wide range of minor parties.

On the two-party preferred measure, so loved by the pundits, Labor received almost 53% to the Coalition’s 47%. This means that Labor has a net gain of 8 seats, but the Coalition has lost 18. By far the most significant change was the number of seats won by independents, who gained 7, all of them in seats previously considered “safe” by the major parties (six from the Coalition and one from Labor). The Greens also had a good election, picking up one seat from Labor and two from the Coalition.

The final makeup of the House of Representatives is 77 Labor, 58 Coalition and an unprecedented crossbench of 16, including four Greens and eight “teal” independents. So it appears that 21 May has turned out to be Independents’ Day!

It is possible that the 2022 federal election has marked a watershed for democracy in the nation, even though Labor has scraped over the line to narrow majority government status. While it will not always need to rely on the votes of the crossbench to pass legislation in the House, the Senate is a quite different matter.

The proportional representation system used in Senate elections means that the resulting seat numbers more closely reflect the votes of the public than in the lower house. While counting is continuing, it appears that together Labor and the Greens will control 38 of the 76 Senate seats. The Coalition seems likely to hold 31 and independents and minor parties have 7.

This means that to navigate legislation through the Senate, the government will require support from the Greens and at least one other crossbencher. The Greens are likely to demand much more ambitious emissions reductions than the current government targets, which will mean that their support on other legislation is far from guaranteed. Given the strong result for “teal” independents who campaigned on decisive action against climate change, creation of a powerful anti-corruption commission and greatly increased focus on “women’s issues” (as did the Greens), it appears that the new government will be forced to move significantly in these areas to be able to garner the necessary Senate votes to enact its programme.

Put another way, this should ensure that the Albanese government is obliged to be more consultative with the many crossbenchers elected by West Islanders. That is, we should all be able to look forward to much greater democracy in our parliament than we have seen for a long time.

All of the public opinion surveys – before and after the election - have indicated that voters rejected the style and actions of the outgoing Morrison government. The election results speak for themselves on these questions. Of particular significance is the loss of seven “Liberal heartland” seats to strong, intelligent women candidates, most of whom have achieved notable success in business and the professions. If history is any guide, the Coalition may find these seats difficult to regain in future elections. Their strategy of trying to offset these losses by picking up outer metropolitan and regional seats also failed, as they lost a further six seats in those zones. In fact the only seat “gained” by the Coalition was Hughes, where the previous member Craig Kelly defected to the United Australia Party but the electorate returned to Coalition hands despite a substantial swing to Labor.

The new Prime Minister has already vowed to regain the trust of the public in the operation of democracy in the West Island and to reform the ways of the parliament, the government and the public service to make them more inclusive and civil in their operations and decision making. It remains to be seen whether these promises will come to fruition, but at least it’s a start. Perhaps the parliament could learn from the successful democratic model in place in Norfolk Island for over 35 years before it was unilaterally revoked?